House of Chips

Why I'm writing this

I own Tesla stock. That makes Elon Musk, in his job as CEO, someone who works for me and for every other Tesla shareholder. I believe a CEO's job is to serve the shareholders, and the clearest scorecard for that is the share price. That's my yardstick.

Here's my opinion, up front: since shareholders approved his new pay package, Elon Musk has underperformed as Tesla's CEO. He also still splits his working time between Tesla and his other companies, which Tesla itself says in its annual report, and I think that leaves Tesla shareholders exposed.^[36] This is an early report card, not a final grade, and I'll give credit where Tesla made progress. I'm not anti-Elon: he built the company I chose to invest in. But make no mistake, I'm calling for three things: Elon stays on the board, Tesla gets a new CEO, and shareholders get a clear plan for Terafab.

What we signed up for

On November 6, 2025, Tesla shareholders approved the 2025 CEO Performance Award, with 1,892,235,822 shares for, 564,940,908 against and 12,227,846 abstaining.^[9] That's about 77% in favor, and the count included Musk's own shares, which the board allowed to vote.^[22] The press called it a trillion-dollar pay package.^[29] The award covers up to 423,743,904 shares in twelve tranches.^[10]

Each tranche needs a market value target, from $2 trillion up to $8.5 trillion, plus operational milestones.^[10] The milestones are big: 20 million vehicles delivered, 10 million active FSD subscriptions, one million Optimus bots delivered, one million robotaxis in commercial operation, and adjusted EBITDA climbing from $50 billion to $400 billion.^[10][22] The clock runs ten years from the September 3, 2025 grant date.^[10]

Fair warning: this is year one of ten, and not even a full year. October 9 was 337 days after the vote.

Year one: the stock

Tesla closed at $445.91 on the day of the vote and at $382.70 on October 9, 2026, a loss of 14.2%.^[28] Over the same days, the S&P 500 rose 16.2% and the Nasdaq-100 rose 22.9%.^[27][28] General Motors gained 20.2% and Ford lost 7.2%, and I include them for readers who still see Tesla as a car company.^[28] I don't: Tesla is building toward chips and memory, so the table also includes Nvidia and Micron.^[39]

These are closing prices without dividends. They don't prove what caused anything, but they do show what it was like to own the stock. Measure from a year earlier, October 9, 2025, and the story is the same: Tesla down 12.1%, the S&P 500 fund SPY up 16.0%.^[28]

By my yardstick, that gap is the headline. Tesla's total market value, about $1.51 trillion, did better than the share price because there are more shares now.^[13][12] I measure per share, because a share is what I own. Either way, it's well short of the first $2 trillion target, and as of June 30, 2026, no tranche was achieved.^[10][12]

Year one: the business

For the business, I lined up Tesla's last four reported quarters against the four before them.^{[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]} The newer window starts five weeks before the vote, so it's close but not exact.

Deliveries grew 1.7%, production grew 4.7% and energy storage grew 15.4%.^{[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]} Storage is a real bright spot. Deliveries also improved through 2026, though the third quarter was still a little below a year earlier.^{[4][5][6][7][8]}

Tesla also made real progress. Cybercab production began at Gigafactory Texas, Robotaxi was live in seven major metro areas, and construction began at Fremont for Optimus.^[11]

Now the milestones, as of Tesla's latest update:^[11]

• Cumulative deliveries: 9.7 million, up from 8.5 million a year earlier, against 20 million.^[11][10] This one is on pace, and Tesla's own filing calls it probable.^[12]
• Active FSD subscriptions: 1.48 million, up from 1.04 million, against 10 million.^[11][10]
• Adjusted EBITDA: about $15.3 billion over the last four reported quarters, my own sum of Tesla's quarterly figures, against a first target of $50 billion.^[11][10] The award's definition differs, but the gap is the point.
• Optimus and robotaxis: Tesla reports factory construction and more cities, but no bots delivered and no robotaxi fleet count.^[11]

The most telling number comes from Tesla itself. In its latest quarterly filing, Tesla judged only one of the twelve operational milestones probable, the 20 million vehicles, and treated the rest as not probable for now.^[12] That's an accounting call and it can change, but it's Tesla's call, not mine.

In the second quarter of 2026, Tesla reported a 1.4% operating margin, negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion and $5.79 billion in capital spending.^[11] Tesla calls this its largest and most exciting period of investment.^[11] Investment can pay off later, but I still get to ask what it's buying, and for whom.

The 0-1 quarterback

"It's year one of ten. Be patient." A quarterback starts the season 0-1. Does he start game two? Probably. What about 0-9? Would you still say it was fine if he won the last game and finished 1-9? How many coaches would be patient enough to find out?

I follow the Miami Dolphins. In 2024 they gave Tua Tagovailoa a four-year, $212.4 million extension.^[30][31] He kept getting hurt, including a fourth concussion in five seasons.^[30][31] In March 2026 the Dolphins released him and took an NFL-record $99.2 million in dead money to do it, and he signed with the Falcons the next day.^[30][31] Miami didn't even trade him; it paid a record price for a clean start, and Tua called Atlanta "a good reset."^[31]

Public companies get graded four times a year. Shareholders are being asked to hold judgment for ten years. A long horizon should give a CEO room for big bets, but it shouldn't make him immune from a report card.

Not a full-time CEO

Don't take my word for how Musk divides his time. Tesla's own annual report says that although he "spends significant time with Tesla and is highly active in our management, he does not devote his full time and attention to Tesla."^[36] The same report lists his management positions at SpaceX, xAI, Neuralink and The Boring Company.^[36] SpaceX's registration filing says the same thing from the other side: he "does not devote his full time and attention" to SpaceX either.^[15]

Shareholders approved what the press called a trillion-dollar pay package, and Tesla tells us in writing that he isn't a full-time CEO.^[29][36] In my opinion, a trillion-dollar job deserves a full-time CEO.

The crunch a visionary should have seen

While Tesla's stock fell, the companies selling the picks and shovels of AI did very well. From vote day to October 9, Nvidia rose 21.9% and memory maker Micron rose 331.8%.^[28] Micron's gross margin hit 86.8% in its latest quarter, up from 44.7% a year earlier.^[32] Memory is a boom-and-bust business, and I expect those margins to fall as new factories open, but that's not my point.

My point is this: if you pay a man what the press calls a trillion dollars for being a visionary, you'd expect him to see the GPU and memory crunch coming. Did he? Partly. At the meeting where the award passed, he said Tesla might have to build a "terafab" because suppliers couldn't make enough chips.^[33] But on the record I found, memory came later. In January 2026, with memory prices already soaring, he called memory "an even bigger limiter than AI logic," and Tesla's annual report that month added memory to its list of risks.^[34][35][36] By July he was thanking Micron for an allocation "on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days."^[37] On October 1 he said Tesla cut the memory on its AI5 chip in half because it "was the only way to get enough volume for Optimus production."^[38]

Seeing a shortage isn't the same as being ready for it. Nvidia's and Micron's shareholders collected on the crunch, while Tesla had to shrink a chip design to fit the memory it could get. Tesla's answer is to make its own: a fab with SpaceX that combines logic, memory and advanced packaging.^[39] Which brings me to the house.

House of Chips

The title plays on "House of Cards," meaning something impressive built on a shaky base. The house is Terafab, the chip factory Tesla and SpaceX are building together.^[16] TechCrunch reported an initial investment of $16.8 billion in Grimes County, Texas, and said SpaceX alone has suggested in filings that it may spend as much as $119 billion across several phases.^[16] In August it was still a plant that "will be built," and Tesla says its own part begins with a research fab at its Austin factory.^[16][39] As far as I can tell, the house of chips is still a plan on an empty field in Grimes County. It's sold as the road to an age of abundance, so my question is simple: abundance for whom?

SpaceX's registration filing says the companies have not finalized the financial terms or the intellectual property rights, and that neither Tesla nor Intel is obligated to stay in the project.^[15] So we don't yet know who owns what, who pays what, or who gets the chips first. If Optimus, a Tesla product, ends up running on Terafab chips, who owns the technology inside it? I'm not accusing anyone of anything; I'm asking for terms negotiated by independent directors and disclosed in plain English.

These questions matter because Musk leads both companies.^[12][15] Tesla's $2 billion investment in xAI is now a SpaceX stake of less than 1%.^[12] That investment came after a shareholder proposal to invest in xAI failed under Tesla's voting rules, even though more shares voted for it than against; the vote was advisory.^[9][12] The investment may turn out fine, and on paper it has gained value.^[12] My concern is who decides, and on whose behalf, when the same man leads both sides of the deal.

Then there's Dojo: Tesla unveiled its own D1 training chip in 2021.^[18] In 2025 the Dojo team was disbanded, and Musk called the next version "an evolutionary dead end."^[17] In January 2026, work on Dojo 3 restarted.^[19] Start, stop, restart. Nvidia is both supplier and rival: Tesla still buys its chips to train its AI, and Nvidia sells its own self-driving platform to carmakers such as Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis and Lucid.^[17][43] Tesla, which completed the design of its own AI5 chip in April, is competing with Nvidia on chip design too.^[39] Nvidia is worth about $5.54 trillion, and Tesla is worth $1.51 trillion.^[14][13] Market value isn't a chip benchmark, but it tells you who won that business.

Terafab goes further: Dojo was about designing chips, but Terafab is about making them, and that's TSMC's game. TSMC had more than 17 million twelve-inch-equivalent wafers of annual capacity and shipped 15.0 million wafers in 2025.^[23] In my view, Dojo didn't beat Nvidia at chip design, so why should I believe Terafab will beat TSMC at chip manufacturing? I can't say Terafab will fail, but I can ask how much Tesla money goes on the table before we find out. That's the house of chips: a tower of promise stacked on the hardest job in the industry.

A Tim Cook for Tesla

So what do I want? Not a firing, but a plan. With the vision set, I think it's time for a Tim Cook-type operator to run Tesla day to day and focus on execution. By Tesla's own account, Elon hasn't drawn a salary since 2019, and he never accepted the minimum-wage one before that.^[41] Poor guy. Let's fix that: a well-earned rest from the day-to-day, his seat on the board, and, at long last, a salary.

Apple has done this twice. Steve Jobs stepped down as CEO in August 2011 for health reasons, became chairman and recommended Cook.^[20] Apple's revenue went from $108.249 billion in fiscal 2011 to $416.161 billion in fiscal 2025.^[24][25] This year Apple did it again: John Ternus became CEO on September 1, 2026, with Cook as executive chairman, after what Apple called "a thoughtful, long-term succession planning process."^[40] Berkshire Hathaway made Greg Abel CEO on January 1, 2026, with Warren Buffett staying on as chairman.^[21] People had a hard time imagining Apple without Jobs or Berkshire without Buffett, and both happened, so I think it's healthy to imagine Tesla without Elon Musk as CEO. A succession plan isn't a vote against the founder; it's what a healthy public company does, and it doesn't have to be the end of anything.

A handover also helps with something that doesn't show up on a stock chart: dilution. Tesla had 3,325,819,167 shares outstanding in October 2025 and 3,949,547,394 in July 2026.^[42][12] Most of that jump is Musk's pay: the 423,743,904 award shares were issued up front and are voted in proportion to everyone else's until earned, and he exercised about 304 million options from his 2018 award.^[12][41] If every target is hit, the 2025 award alone is about 10.7% of today's shares, before an offset for its $334.09 grant-date value that he can also pay in cash.^[12][22] Under the award, unvested shares are forfeited when he stops serving as CEO or as the approved product or operations executive.^[41] So a planned handover is also a way to avoid that dilution, and a hired operator would cost a small fraction of it.

There is a catch: the award only counts service as CEO, or as an approved executive officer in charge of product development or operations, so a board seat alone doesn't qualify.^[10] The same goes for the shares Musk received from his 2018 award, which require him to stay in one of those roles until January 19, 2028.^[12] The last two tranches also require the board to approve a CEO succession framework.^[10][12] So a board-only role would cost Musk money unless the terms changed, though he could stay on as the product executive while an operator runs the company. Either way, I want a real succession plan now, and the award itself already asks for one.

Anticipated criticism

Here are the objections I expect, stated fairly, with my answers.

"He only gets paid if shareholders get rich first, so nobody loses."

Shareholders can still lose time and opportunity while they wait. I'm not saying the pay package caused the stock's drop. If Tesla reaches $8.5 trillion, I'll gladly pay, but could a full-time operator get us there for less?

"Big technology follows an S-curve, so early progress is supposed to look slow."

It could be an S-curve or a never curve, and early on they look the same. I'm not asking for a straight line, just measurable progress every quarter.

"Shareholders voted for a ten-year plan."

True, and I respect the vote.^[9] Voting yes on a plan doesn't take away a shareholder's right to grade it along the way.

"You cherry-picked the start date."

I used the day shareholders made the bet. Starting a year earlier gives about the same result.^[28] The market and other automakers move Tesla too, so these comparisons show context, not cause.

"There were real wins this year."

Agreed, and I listed them: storage, FSD subscriptions, deliveries, Cybercab production and Robotaxi cities, and the vehicle milestone is on pace.^[11][12] My complaint is about the pace and the results for shareholders, not that nothing improved.

"He did see the chip shortage coming, and that's why Terafab exists."

He saw the logic-chip side, and I give him credit for that.^[33] The memory warning came after prices had already jumped, and the suppliers kept the margins.^[34][35]

"Dojo was a design project, and Terafab is a factory."

Right, and that makes it harder, not easier. Dojo's history doesn't prove Terafab will fail, but it's fair to ask what's different.

"Tesla is worth what it is because of Musk, so replacing him would sink the stock."

It could drop, and I concede the risk. That's exactly why the handover should be planned now, carefully, instead of in a crisis.

"Apple and Berkshire are cherry-picked successes."

They're examples, not proof, and plenty of successions go badly. My point is that a board can plan for life after its founder without disowning him.

"The Dolphins didn't get better by cutting Tua."

Maybe not, because not every change works. The point is that a team was willing to make the call instead of waiting to find out.

Agree to disagree

I may be wrong. If Tesla's results and milestone progress improve, I'll say so on this page. But here's my opinion as a shareholder: the early report card is weak, the house still looks more like cards than chips, and Tesla needs a CEO whose whole job is Tesla. We can agree to disagree.

Corrections

None so far.

Sources

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